|
Straight
Track #93
| 2002: The Year Ahead J.
Dillon Hoey
Hoey & Farina Partner
1-888-425-1212 Having been a life long subscriber to Trend
Letter, I have always found their projections to be insightful. In this edition of Straight Track, I thought we would share with
you excerpts from their December 10, 2001 article, “The Year Ahead 2002”. |
|
|
If you would like to subscribe to Trend Letter, they can be reached
at 1-800- 915-0022.
TREND LETTER
“Special Issue: The Year Ahead 2002”
By Corine Kuypers Denlinger,
Editor-in-Chief, Trend Letter
Introduction:
10 Top Trends Affecting Our Future
For years to come, September 11, 2001, will be a reference point. People will remember the day as a moment of horror that set the course for the events and activities for weeks and even months afterward. Some things will be forever changed.
“Since the attack ...” will pepper our conversations as a means to explain why some things are different now. And Trend Letter agrees that some things will be different as a result of the attack. But the seeds of the fundamental social, political, economic and technological changes addressed in this final Trend issue of 2001 were sown before that fateful day.
Single events rarely result in permanent alterations to the social infrastructure, even events as horrific as the terrorist attack. Society-altering change always occurs from the bottom up, never from the top down. Legislation will pass. Programs, systems and plans will arise in response to past - and in anticipation of - future assaults.
But most of the changes that affect the way we work and live in the future will be those now occurring at the grassroots level. We highlight some of those shifts in the annual year-ahead edition of Trend Letter.
As we consider what influences will shape the year ahead, two counterbalancing trends emerge. The first: Technological innovation will continue to fuel the economic engine in the developed world. The second: Technological overload will accelerate the continued search for balance between technology and humanity even among those who embrace and applaud the benefits of technology.
“High-tech, high-touch” will become the mantra of the masses as growing numbers of consumers reject technology for technology’s sake.
In the year ahead, technology will help solve the energy supply and distribution dilemma, enabling the cost-effective use of alternative fuels.
Arguably, the most extraordinary breakthroughs will occur in biotechnology as scientists shift their focus from unraveling the human genome to identifying the tens of thousands of proteins that help the body function. Customized medicine is at hand.
Now that the Internet bubble has burst and the dust of dot.com disasters is swept away, the real work begins. Online companies with real products and
services, a viable business plan and experienced managers will flourish.
At the same time, many of us will raise the questions: “How much is too much?” and “At what cost?” We’ll ask ourselves: How much technology should we use in the classroom? Or to extend human life?
For many companies, strategic patenting has replaced strategic planning in the race to protect intellectual property. Are we overprotective? Are we risking long-term growth from collaborative innovation for short-term gain?
In the year ahead, the search for balance between technology and humanity will manifest in the trends documented in this issue of Trend Letter.
Trend # 1:
From Fossil Fuels to Alternative Energy
-
Renewable resources such as solar, hydro, wind, geothermal and nuclear will get a new lease on life as the technology improves, costs come down and concern lingers that dependence on fossil fuels is foolhardy.
-
Electric industry deregulation will continue in the United States, but with greater caution, as states review their implementation strategies in reaction to California’s 2001 energy debacle.
Trend # 2:
From Microchips to Miracle Materials
-
Specially formulated plastics will replace and repair human tissues, make buses, trains and planes lighter and more fuel-efficient, and make computers more durable.
-
The barriers between the organic and the inorganic – between the living and the inanimate – will blur as researchers place DNA strands that behave like microchips into tiny devices, infusing ordinary objects with extraordinary computer processing power.
Trend #3:
From Capitalism to Social Conscience
-
Nonprofit organizations will adopt corporate marketing strategies to enhance revenues and reach a wider audience.
-
Venture philanthropists will bring the principles of free enterprise to nonprofit organizations, making them more effective and efficient.
-
Social responsibility will find its way into corporate strategic plans because customers demand it and because doing the responsible thing often yields the greatest profits.
Trend #4:
From Strategic Planning to Strategic Patenting
-
2002 will prove a pivotal year for a number of industries in which holding a patent translates into market dominance.
-
Public opinion will prompt companies to release financial claims to patents on components of commonly used technologies and pharmaceutical formulations able to reduce the impact of devastating health epidemics such as AIDS.
-
A “common good” tenet will arise and become the standard for relinquishing patent rights.
Trend #5:
From Stock Options to Job Security
-
Employment litigation will rise dramatically. With stock options turning to scrap paper, disillusioned employees will seek restitution, evoking industrial-era labor laws to support claims.
-
A decades-long decline in union membership will reverse as low-skilled, high-tech workers and well-educated professionals discover there really is strength in numbers.
-
An aging workforce will require a different management structure to keep them – and their knowledge – at work.
Trend #6:
From Genomics to Proteomics
-
Human protein research will grow to a $16.5 billion enterprise by 2005.
-
For the computer industry, revenues generated by meeting the data management and storage needs of proteomics research will more than replace revenues lost to sluggish business and consumer markets.
Trend #7:
From Dot.Com Shakeout to New Growth
-
Internet use will continue to grow, with remarkable progress made in the developing world.
-
Distributed computing will put the power of supercomputers in the hands of those industrious enough to tap into the limitless computer power resting on idle desktops worldwide.
-
Smaller companies will lead the next e-commerce revolution by using the Web to increase sales leads, lower marketing cots and increase online and offline sales revenue.
Trend #8:
From Science Fiction to Science Fact
-
Sales of Internet-able wireless phones will surpass those of conventional phones, as greater numbers of people
untether themselves from land-based units.
-
In the coming year, the market for high-tech home-health equipment will explode, as aging baby boomers seek to identify, monitor and curb impending age-related illnesses.
-
Early adopters will always buy the latest technological breakthrough regardless of its purpose. But the real money is in developing useful tools for an increasingly sophisticated consumer market.
Trend #9:
From Managed Care to Self-Insurance
-
Employers who continue to provide traditional health insurance will compel workers to assume a larger share of the cost burden.
-
Pharmaceutical companies’ pricing policies will come under intense scrutiny and challenge.
Trend #10:
From High-Tech Mania to the Simple Life
-
An underground appropriate-use movement will gain momentum as technophiles, parents, psychologists and philosophers question the necessity or desirability of have access to anyone, anytime, anywhere.
[top]
|
